WTA Miami Best Bets: Ostapenko vs Paolini & Key Match Previews

As the third round of WTA Miami draws to a close, predictions are offered for six of the remaining eight matches. By excluding the least predictable encounters, we have focused our coverage on the matches most likely to attract significant betting interest.

WTA Miami

Jovic – Gibson: Time 08:30

H2H: 1-0

Iva Jovic and Talia Gibson will face each other for the second time in their careers. Jovic won their previous encounter, a three-set quarterfinal at WTA Ilkley last year. This will be their first match on a hardcourt. Although both players have accumulated six losses this year, Gibson boasts 21 wins compared to Jovic's 15. Gibson is considerably more experienced on hardcourts and has been performing exceptionally well at both levels this season. She also faced similar odds in the previous round. Jovic, too, has been playing at an elite level and consistently making deep runs in tournaments.

Best Bet to Make

In the previous round, Gibson did not receive the credit she deserved, though many would argue she earned it, especially against Osaka. However, Jovic is likely a different caliber of opponent than Osaka, who had played only seven matches before facing a very confident Gibson. Jovic, on the other hand, has played 21 matches, winning 15 of them. If Gibson secures a victory in this match, betting against her in the next round will be ruled out. A straightforward win for Jovic is suggested as the safest bet. Nevertheless, Jovic winning is considered a valuable bet.

Value bet/the best odds: Jovic winning

Alexandrova – Cristian: Time 07:00

H2H: 1-1

Ekaterina Alexandrova and Jaqueline Cristian will face off in a decisive career match, with their head-to-head record tied at 1-1. Alexandrova defeated Cristian in the WTA Tokyo Round of 16 last October, while Cristian secured victory in their first-round match at WTA Adelaide earlier in 2026. Both encounters concluded in straight sets. This year, both players have seven losses, but Alexandrova has only five wins compared to Cristian's ten. Alexandrova reached the semifinals here in 2024.

Best Bet to Make

Would anyone be surprised if Cristian defeats Alexandrova for the second time this year? Honestly, I wouldn't be, and it's not solely because of her previous victory. Alexandrova has been underperforming this year. She endured a four-match losing streak before WTA Miami, and her record in the last ten matches stands at 4-6. Cristian, with a 6-4 record, has already beaten Alexandrova once. Cristian offers exceptional value as an underdog. At a minimum, Cristian would return 2.5 times the initial stake. Nevertheless, Cristian winning is considered a valuable bet.

Value bet/the best odds: Cristian winning

Ostapenko – Paolini: Time 07:00

H2H: 2-2

The match between Jelena Ostapenko and Jasmine Paolini is another significant rivalry and arguably the most anticipated game of the day. While Paolini and Ostapenko have split their last two encounters, Ostapenko has won two of their last three matches, all contested at the WTA level. Paolini's 2014 victory occurred at the ITF level. Ostapenko's wins were achieved on hardcourts, whereas Paolini's victories include one on an ITF hardcourt and another on clay at the WTA level. One of Ostapenko's wins took place at the 2023 US Open.

Best Bet to Make

Bookmakers favor Paolini in this match, and I'm somewhat undecided. The fact that Ostapenko has proven a formidable opponent for Paolini on hardcourts resonates strongly, especially since both encounters occurred within the last three years. In 2026, only a single loss separates these two players, making this match a matter of probabilities. Ostapenko's hardcourt record over the last two years is 16-21, whereas Paolini boasts 35-18. A straightforward win for Paolini is also available. Nevertheless, Paolini winning is considered a valuable bet.

Value bet/the best odds: Paolini winning