ATP Monte Carlo Day 3 Predictions: Alcaraz vs Baez & Key Matches

The third day of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters clay-court tournament promises to be spectacular. World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz begins his title defense against Argentina's clay-court specialist. Who will advance to the next round?

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini

Head-to-head: Berrettini 4-1 Bautista Agut

Despite a straight-sets loss to Alexander Shevchenko in qualifying, Bautista Agut secured a spot in the main draw as a lucky loser. In his 11 previous appearances in Monte Carlo, he has never failed to reach the second round. However, that impressive record is now in jeopardy. While some fundamentals of his game persist, he is clearly past his prime. Berrettini possesses superior weapons and strikes the ball with greater precision. He currently has a higher potential, and if the Italian manages to keep points short, he should advance to the second round.
Prediction: Berrettini in 2 sets

Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi

Head-to-head: first meeting

Darderi has achieved some impressive results on clay in recent seasons, holding an 8-3 record on the surface in 2026. However, he is coming off a surprising semifinal defeat to Marco Trungelliti in Marrakech. This result means he will remain outside the top 20 for at least another week. While he can alter this trajectory, he faces a challenging task. An opening match against Hubert Hurkacz is likely one of the toughest assignments, regardless of the Pole's physical struggles. Nevertheless, Hurkacz appears out of form, having accumulated several losses since the Australian Open.
Prediction: Darderi in 3 sets

Corentin Moutet vs Alexandre Muller

Head-to-head: Moutet 3-2 Muller

This is a compelling rivalry. Moutet and Muller first faced each other in the final of an ITF tournament in 2017, where Moutet emerged victorious. The 26-year-old left-hander also prevailed in their last encounter in Washington last year, securing a dominant 6-0, 6-1 win. Muller's retirement from the Marrakech quarterfinal sparked some controversy. He traveled to Monte Carlo in less than 24 hours to compete in qualifying and successfully earned a spot in the main draw. Nevertheless, this is a matchup where Moutet should excel. His varied game style can disrupt opponents' rhythm.
Prediction: Moutet in 2 sets

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez

Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-0 Baez

Alcaraz enters the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Masters aware that the world No. 1 ranking could shift after the tournament. The Spaniard holds a mere 200-point lead over his close rival Jannik Sinner in the live rankings as he commences his title defense. He arrives in the Principality full of energy, having last competed at the Miami Open in March. Sebastian Baez poses a significant threat on clay, yet he has a historically poor record at this event. Not even a confidence-boosting win over Stan Wawrinka in the opening round (his first-ever victory in Monte Carlo) will alter his prospects in this encounter against Alcaraz, who is unequivocally the player to beat on clay.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2 sets